Gov. Rick Perry and Secessionist Realpolitik I

By now most of the fallout released by Texas Gov. Rick Perry at last week's Austin Tea Party has settled. The reference is, of course, related to Gov. Perry's going beyond the endorsement of Texas States' Rights onto the slippery, uncharted and dangerous political slope of secession.

The liberal media quickly trotted out its attack poodles in the form of MSNBC's Keith Olbermann and Rachel Maddow. Aside from the now lame and questionable interpretations of the American Civil War and Lincoln's merits as a freedom fighter, one has to assume that secession would be bad for General Electric's bottom line as an arms merchant. On the conservative side, much finger pointing went in the direction of Fox News and Glenn Beck's 9/12 Project for the ultra-jingoistic primping of the Tea Bag protests. Both "left" and "right" media missed the mark, as was pointed out by Alex Jones. However, not even the writers at Inforwars picked up on the realpolitik motives behind Gov. Perry's sudden attachment to the secession of Texas from the Union.

Gov. Perry is locked in a bitter fight for the Republican Primary gubernatorial nomination with Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in March, 2010. Reports have it that the two do not particularly like each other and that the gloves are already coming off for what will likely be nasty campaigns. Furthermore, as reported by Richard Murray (also here), Sen. Hutchison currently holds about a 10 point spread. Gov. Perry has just less than a year to play catch up and then some. The challenge for the incumbent becomes from where and how to make up the difference. It is at this point that Gov. Perry's newly-found embracement of secession comes into play.

A name that has not yet been mentioned in any of the blog action or by the corporate media around Gov. Perry's secessionist pronouncements is that of Larry Kilgore. Mr. Kilgore is a dedicated Texas secessionist who has six attempts at public office under his belt. In 2006, he gained 8 percent of the vote in the GOP Primary for Governor. His most recent electoral effort was the 2008 primary challenge for the Republican Senate nomination, during which he received 225,897 votes! Lastly, Mr. Kilgore has announced his intent to let his name stand for the 2010 Republican gubernatorial primary. The sheen on Gov. Perry's newly-discovered secessionist empathy takes on a whole new tone.

Sen. Hutchison's demographic backing comes from the more moderate, professional and urban wing of Texas Republicans. Gov. Perry's support, on the other hand, is based on hard-right conservatives who are strongly pro-life, opposed to gay rights, hostile to teaching evolution in the public schools, and tough on immigration. It is the very demographic that delivered for Mr. Kilgore, with his platform of Biblical Law for an independent Texas, 225,897 votes during the 2008 Republican Senate primary.

One now gains an altogether different (and more clear?) picture of Gov. Perry's secessionist motives: he's out to grab Mr. Kilgore's support to fend off the challenge from Sen. Hutchison. Unless Mr. Kilgore finds a way to defend both his position and support, with a secessionist slant, then he very well faces insurmountable odds to fend off an incumbent Governor from staging a well-financed and aggressive raid into his electoral base.

Richard Murray (link above) throws further light on the numbers up for grabs for both Gov. Perry and Mr. Kilgore:

• for the last four Republican gunernatorial primaries, the average turn-out has been 691,000 (2006 turn-out was 665,616)
• for the last four Republican gunernatorial general elections, the average primary vote was 30.4% of the general election turn-out (2006 general election turn-out was 1,716,792)
• odds are that of the 13 million registered voters in Texas who can vote in the Republican Primary next year, less than a million will actually cast ballots
• the very selective GOP primary voters from 1994 – 2006 have been disproportionately hard-right conservatives

And there you have it. There is a strong probability of voter cross-over between Republican Senate and Gubernatorial primary turn-outs, i.e. hard-right conservatives. As such, if one stacks up Mr. Kilgore's 2008 Senate primary support of 225,897 votes against the 2006 Gubernatorial primary turn-out of 665,616 we see how crucial and decisive Mr. Kilgore's past support stands to be in 2010.

Sen. Hutchison needs a high turn-out primary that attracts moderate urban voters. Gov. Perry needs a low turn-out in March 2010 where the born-again Christian vote wields power. Mr. Kilgore needs to clarify who the real secessionist candidate is to prevent his support from draining over to Gov. Perry.

For Sen. Hutchison, going after Mr. Kilgore's grass-roots, Republican support is not an option. For Gov. Perry, tapping into some, most or all of Mr. Kilgore's support could be the difference between political life and death. If the Governor has his eyes on the Presidency in 2012, then he will first have to overcome the 2010 hurdle. The stakes here are serious and they are huge. Mr. Kilgore stands to be a giant slayer in more ways than one and in ways that are not yet even visible on most political radar.

(Note: In a follow-up post I shall deal with Gov. Rick Perry and Secessionist Realpolitik II. This was touched on by the Infowars report on Gov. Perry's questionable secessionist beliefs, but was not followed to conclusion, i.e. Gov. Perry's ties, as a Bilderberger, to a globalist New World Order and the related dismantling of nation-states as part of the globalist agenda.)