Gov. Rick Perry and Secessionist Realpolitik I

By now most of the fallout released by Texas Gov. Rick Perry at last week's Austin Tea Party has settled. The reference is, of course, related to Gov. Perry's going beyond the endorsement of Texas States' Rights onto the slippery, uncharted and dangerous political slope of secession.

The liberal media quickly trotted out its attack poodles in the form of MSNBC's Keith Olbermann and Rachel Maddow. Aside from the now lame and questionable interpretations of the American Civil War and Lincoln's merits as a freedom fighter, one has to assume that secession would be bad for General Electric's bottom line as an arms merchant. On the conservative side, much finger pointing went in the direction of Fox News and Glenn Beck's 9/12 Project for the ultra-jingoistic primping of the Tea Bag protests. Both "left" and "right" media missed the mark, as was pointed out by Alex Jones. However, not even the writers at Inforwars picked up on the realpolitik motives behind Gov. Perry's sudden attachment to the secession of Texas from the Union.

Gov. Perry is locked in a bitter fight for the Republican Primary gubernatorial nomination with Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in March, 2010. Reports have it that the two do not particularly like each other and that the gloves are already coming off for what will likely be nasty campaigns. Furthermore, as reported by Richard Murray (also here), Sen. Hutchison currently holds about a 10 point spread. Gov. Perry has just less than a year to play catch up and then some. The challenge for the incumbent becomes from where and how to make up the difference. It is at this point that Gov. Perry's newly-found embracement of secession comes into play.

A name that has not yet been mentioned in any of the blog action or by the corporate media around Gov. Perry's secessionist pronouncements is that of Larry Kilgore. Mr. Kilgore is a dedicated Texas secessionist who has six attempts at public office under his belt. In 2006, he gained 8 percent of the vote in the GOP Primary for Governor. His most recent electoral effort was the 2008 primary challenge for the Republican Senate nomination, during which he received 225,897 votes! Lastly, Mr. Kilgore has announced his intent to let his name stand for the 2010 Republican gubernatorial primary. The sheen on Gov. Perry's newly-discovered secessionist empathy takes on a whole new tone.

Sen. Hutchison's demographic backing comes from the more moderate, professional and urban wing of Texas Republicans. Gov. Perry's support, on the other hand, is based on hard-right conservatives who are strongly pro-life, opposed to gay rights, hostile to teaching evolution in the public schools, and tough on immigration. It is the very demographic that delivered for Mr. Kilgore, with his platform of Biblical Law for an independent Texas, 225,897 votes during the 2008 Republican Senate primary.

One now gains an altogether different (and more clear?) picture of Gov. Perry's secessionist motives: he's out to grab Mr. Kilgore's support to fend off the challenge from Sen. Hutchison. Unless Mr. Kilgore finds a way to defend both his position and support, with a secessionist slant, then he very well faces insurmountable odds to fend off an incumbent Governor from staging a well-financed and aggressive raid into his electoral base.

Richard Murray (link above) throws further light on the numbers up for grabs for both Gov. Perry and Mr. Kilgore:
  • for the last four Republican gunernatorial primaries, the average turn-out has been 691,000 (2006 turn-out was 665,616)
  • for the last four Republican gunernatorial general elections, the average primary vote was 30.4% of the general election turn-out (2006 general election turn-out was 1,716,792)
  • odds are that of the 13 million registered voters in Texas who can vote in the Republican Primary next year, less than a million will actually cast ballots
  • the very selective GOP primary voters from 1994 – 2006 have been disproportionately hard-right conservatives
And there you have it. There is a strong probability of voter cross-over between Republican Senate and Gubernatorial primary turn-outs, i.e. hard-right conservatives. As such, if one stacks up Mr. Kilgore's 2008 Senate primary support of 225,897 votes against the 2006 Gubernatorial primary turn-out of 665,616 we see how crucial and decisive Mr. Kilgore's past support stands to be in 2010.

Sen. Hutchison needs a high turn-out primary that attracts moderate urban voters. Gov. Perry needs a low turn-out in March 2010 where the born-again Christian vote wields power. Mr. Kilgore needs to clarify who the real secessionist candidate is to prevent his support from draining over to Gov. Perry.

For Sen. Hutchison, going after Mr. Kilgore's grass-roots, Republican support is not an option. For Gov. Perry, tapping into some, most or all of Mr. Kilgore's support could be the difference between political life and death. If the Governor has his eyes on the Presidency in 2012, then he will first have to overcome the 2010 hurdle. The stakes here are serious and they are huge. Mr. Kilgore stands to be a giant slayer in more ways than one and in ways that are not yet even visible on most political radar.

(Note: In a follow-up post I shall deal with Gov. Rick Perry and Secessionist Realpolitik II. This was touched on by the Infowars report on Gov. Perry's questionable secessionist beliefs, but was not followed to conclusion, i.e. Gov. Perry's ties, as a Bilderberger, to a globalist New World Order and the related dismantling of nation-states as part of the globalist agenda.)


  1. Anonymous22/4/09 16:37

    i want kilgore but i dont want hutchison even more

  2. Anonymous @ 16:37: Care to shed some light for us and expand on just why it is that you "dont want hutchison even more?" What's the skinny on the street?

  3. Anonymous22/4/09 17:28

    Hutchison is basically committing suicide if she goes into this gubnitorial race. She is doing great in senate and she ought stay there(she’s a hell of alot better than john cornyn)there is also another republican candidate for Governor that I know of that is not even mentioned here(medina). Its already a 4 way race 2 years before hand. I personally am pro secessionist and if Mr. Perry and Mr. Kilgore teamed up.....well that would be an excellent combo and the election would be a landslide. My support in the past has been for Mr. Perry but until his recent “comeback” I was full onboard for Mr. Kilgore, its kinda enjoying to have a hard decision in a political race. My only real fear of having so many conservative candidates is that the crats might find a single candidate to back and stuff the election.

    By The Way Im not the guy at the top, here is the website of the other candidate I know of www.runmedina.com

  4. not the guy at the top ;-): Thanks for the heads up on Debra Medina. You're right, this makes for an even more interesting mix. So who has the advantage with a four-way race?

  5. Anonymous22/4/09 17:43

    well for me im in a toss up between Perry and kilgore at the moment, I dont know alot about Medina but its still 2 years out :) I have time to study. From the looks at the very least she is pro States rights but all I have really found is her campaign site.

    Steven Kays BTW

  6. Steven, re "but its still 2 years out" March 2010 - April 2009 = 11 months. When I wrote this post I also had to do a double-take on how close this election actually is.

    I would venture the guess that if Kilgore is approached by Perry with some kind of a deal, then Kilgore would be holding one helluva hand for leverage. Then again, if Kilgore can somewhow scoop Perry as the "true" secessionist, then who knows how much damage this could leave Perry with. Again, as per the post, there are some serious stakes in play here. All of the latter, IMHO, of course.

  7. Anonymous22/4/09 18:01

    True Perry is at a make or break moment if he cant realign with Texas conservative he has alienated with his backing of the TTC (trans Texas corridor) hes up the proverbial creek without a paddle. Im not entirely sure we wont have even more candidates once we move closer in to the elections. But the big nut to crack is if Texas does secede it will likely bring the issue screaming to the forefront in a dozen other states. This Election is probably the most important one we have seen in a century.

  8. Re "But the big nut to crack is if Texas does secede it will likely bring the issue screaming to the forefront in a dozen other states."

    True enough. It is my understanding that there are now three states in the running for "most likely to secede" status: Texas, South Carolina and Vermont. It was only a short year ago that Vermont was claiming this status to itself, so things are shifting and shifting quickly. Also, don't forget that New Hampshire's defeated States' Rights resolution HCR6 had a strong secessionist trigger written into it. That could come back in one form or another. However, as long as the House is Crat controlled, it's still a long shot to pass.

  9. Anonymous22/4/09 18:40

    yeah this time the secession fever is not confined to a single region. The government in DC has gone head long into the socialist door that it had been sidestepping for 20 years. Whichever state hits it first others will surely follow.
    Wow we really hit that rabbit trail :)

  10. Anonymous22/4/09 19:22

    The Ray McBerry movement in Georgia is also one to keep an eye on.

  11. Anonymous26/4/09 16:40

    I hope we do secede, because DC does not care about the States or "We the People". They only care about themselves, their friends (AIG,etc..) and trying to have more control over everything!